Fact Checking The #GEJ #PDP Declaration Speech
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Modified Nov 27,2014: Unemployment rate was modified to be based off the labor force versus the total population.
On November 11th, the President of Nigeria GEJ announced his intention to run for President in 2015 in a much publicized and “copy and pasted” declaration Speech that was made available all over the Nigerian blogosphere.
When I first read the speech at a local café there were certain things that jumped at me. I hoped that somebody would do a detailed analysis and breakdown to expose these things but for
5 days 10 days 13 days waiting nothing. So like the popular saying goes “if the article book you want to read has not been written, then write it.”
So today November 24th, 2014 with our nation on the brink of a quasi civil war, with unemployment unabated but yet with great progresses in certain spheres of Nigeria. I decided to write a detailed, unbiased analysis of the GEJ speech and grade him on each major category.
NOTE: This is a crowd sourced article, meaning that your comments or pictures can be shared to give this article a more diverse view point.
On jobs I rated the President a staggering E- mainly because GEJ’s talking points were mathematically challenged. In one area he states…
“Between the third quarter of 2012, when we started tracking jobs created and the end of 2013, 1.9 million jobs were created. To deepen our success in this area, I have created a Presidential Jobs Creation Board headed by the Vice President with the mandate to create at least two million jobs a year. – GEJ”
Now 2 million jobs per year might seem great on declaration speech paper, which is why this probably passed under the “cut and paste” media radar. But consider this, according to the National Population Commission (NPoC) there are 167 million people in Nigeria…of that amount 50% are between the age of 15-65, we can define that as our Labor force…83,500,000
Now while there are no dependable statistics on the unemployment rate in Nigeria, let us assume that our unemployment rate is just two times (it is way higher but let’s just assume) that of America’s 10%, this means that Nigeria would have an unemployment rate of 20% meaning that 16,600,000 people in Nigeria are unemployed (although it is higher). Let that sink in…
Now according to GEJ his administration created 2 million jobs in 2013, and plan to create another 2 million jobs per year. This should scare anyone with a calculator … here’s why …
It would take 5 years (10 million jobs) to reduce our unemployment rate from 20% (16.6 million) to 10% (8.3 million), but that is assuming that Nigerians are all castrated during this period!
Because if you check our current growth rate … per (Falusi 2014) we typically have around 1.8 million youth entering the labor market every year. Every single year! So by the time those 5 years are over … 9 million new people will be added to the labor taking the unemployment rate back to 20% making the 2 million per year goal all but useless. As useless as a hamster spinning wheels. But where is the outrage?
“Over 500billion Naira have been spent, through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) and the special NEEDS assessment fund on various projects to increase access and improve the quality of infrastructure at the tertiary level of our education system.”
Assuming that tertiary means Nigerian Universities, then this claim is quite interesting.
First of all in 2013 Nigerian Universities (ASUU) went on a 5 month strike and only called it off after the Government agreed was forced to pay refurbishment costs.
Secondly the effect of the 500 billion Naira is yet to be seen in Universities across the nation as our Federal Universities are still one of the worst maintained and looking in the world. (crowd source: send pictures of your University facilities so we can verify, I will post your pictures I the article).
And let’s not forget about the polytechnics (ASUP) that were on strike for close to a year! So what exactly is GEJ’s claim here? He talks as if Education is a priority or has been a priority for his administration but it has not been.
“We are equipping the armed forces and deploying special forces to engage the terrorist and end this senseless war. We must protect our country. We must save our people. I will do everything humanly possible to end this criminal violence in our Nation.”
Can GEJ stop every suicide bomb attack? The answer is no. That is the reality. But there are certain things that he could do to give confidence to Nigerians … to tell us that he cares about the lost lives and that he is control. And that starts with communication.
But on communication GEJ’s administration has failed drastically, one day his admin has found the girls the next they have not. One day they have reached a cease fire deal … the next Bokoharam attacks. Another day Shekau is declared dead … the next Shekau is seen alive. Today the Nigerian airforce solider captured is not an Army officer … the next day he is. This shows an administration that is lacking in basic communication basics.
And let’s not forget that it took him over 18 days to finally really admit that the Chibok girls had been kidnapped. A glare so glaring that he was called out by his party member Mr. Obasanjo on a Bloomberg TV interview for being too slow to react.
Security remains GEJ’s most vulnerable point and is likely one that APC will seek to exploit with their staged primary process to democratically cough cough select Buhari to represent them. The contrast of a candidate strong on military tactics against a backdrop of more bombings and bokoharam deaths might be just strong enough to shift the votes away from PDP…but would it be enough?
Analysis to be continued … including POWER, TRANSPORT AND AGRICULTURE…
Written By Okechukwu Ofili of ofilispeaks.com
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