Fact Checking The #GEJ #PDP Declaration Speech

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Modified Nov 27,2014: Unemployment rate was modified to be based off the labor force versus the total population.

GEJ

On November 11th, the President of Nigeria GEJ announced his intention to run for President in 2015 in a much publicized and “copy and pasted” declaration Speech that was made available all over the Nigerian blogosphere.

When I first read the speech at a local café there were certain things that jumped at me. I hoped that somebody would do a detailed analysis and breakdown to expose these things but for 5 days 10 days 13 days waiting nothing. So like the popular saying goes “if the article book you want to read has not been written, then write it.”

So today November 24th, 2014 with our nation on the brink of a quasi civil war, with unemployment unabated but yet with great progresses in certain spheres of Nigeria. I decided to write a detailed, unbiased analysis of the GEJ speech and grade him on each major category.

NOTE: This is a crowd sourced article, meaning that your comments or pictures can be shared to give this article a more diverse view point.

JOBS E-

On jobs I rated the President a staggering E- mainly because GEJ’s talking points were mathematically challenged. In one area he states…

“Between the third quarter of 2012, when we started tracking jobs created and the end of 2013, 1.9 million jobs were created. To deepen our success in this area, I have created a Presidential Jobs Creation Board headed by the Vice President with the mandate to create at least two million jobs a year. – GEJ”

Now 2 million jobs per year might seem great on declaration speech paper, which is why this probably passed under the “cut and paste” media radar. But consider this, according to the National Population Commission (NPoC) there are 167 million people in Nigeria…of that amount 50% are between the age of 15-65, we can define that as our Labor force…83,500,000

Now while there are no dependable statistics on the unemployment rate in Nigeria, let us assume that our unemployment rate is just two times (it is way higher but let’s just assume) that of America’s 10%, this means that Nigeria would have an unemployment rate of 20% meaning that 16,600,000 people in Nigeria are unemployed (although it is higher). Let that sink in…

Now according to GEJ his administration created 2 million jobs in 2013, and plan to create another 2 million jobs per year. This should scare anyone with a calculator … here’s why …

It would take 5 years (10 million jobs) to reduce our unemployment rate from 20% (16.6 million) to 10% (8.3 million), but that is assuming that Nigerians are all castrated during this period!

Because if you check our current growth rate … per (Falusi 2014) we typically have around 1.8 million youth entering the labor market every year. Every single year! So by the time those 5 years are over … 9 million new people will be added to the labor taking the unemployment rate back to 20% making the 2 million per year goal all but useless. As useless as a hamster spinning wheels. But where is the outrage?

EDUCATION D-

“Over 500billion Naira have been spent, through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) and the special NEEDS assessment fund on various projects to increase access and improve the quality of infrastructure at the tertiary level of our education system.”

Assuming that tertiary means Nigerian Universities, then this claim is quite interesting.

First of all in 2013 Nigerian Universities (ASUU) went on a 5 month strike and only called it off after the Government agreed was forced to pay refurbishment costs.

Secondly the effect of the 500 billion Naira is yet to be seen in Universities across the nation as our Federal Universities are still one of the worst maintained and looking in the world. (crowd source: send pictures of your University facilities so we can verify, I will post your pictures I the article).

And let’s not forget about the polytechnics (ASUP) that were on strike for close to a year! So what exactly is GEJ’s claim here? He talks as if Education is a priority or has been a priority for his administration but it has not been.

SECURITY F-

We are equipping the armed forces and deploying special forces to engage the terrorist and end this senseless war. We must protect our country. We must save our people. I will do everything humanly possible to end this criminal violence in our Nation.”

Can GEJ stop every suicide bomb attack? The answer is no. That is the reality. But there are certain things that he could do to give confidence to Nigerians … to tell us that he cares about the lost lives and that he is control. And that starts with communication.

But on communication GEJ’s administration has failed drastically, one day his admin has found the girls the next they have not. One day they have reached a cease fire deal … the next Bokoharam attacks. Another day Shekau is declared dead … the next Shekau is seen alive. Today the Nigerian airforce solider captured is not an Army officer … the next day he is. This shows an administration that is lacking in basic communication basics.

And let’s not forget that it took him over 18 days to finally really admit that the Chibok girls had been kidnapped. A glare so glaring that he was called out by his party member Mr. Obasanjo on a Bloomberg TV interview for being too slow to react.

Security remains GEJ’s most vulnerable point and is likely one that APC will seek to exploit with their staged primary process to democratically cough cough select Buhari to represent them. The contrast of a candidate strong on military tactics against a backdrop of more bombings and bokoharam deaths might be just strong enough to shift the votes away from PDP…but would it be enough?

Analysis to be continued … including POWER, TRANSPORT AND AGRICULTURE…

twitterWritten By Okechukwu Ofili of ofilispeaks.com
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Ofili

Author: Ofili

Words by Okechukwu Ofili of ofilispeaks.com
Follow him on Twitter
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24 comments on “Fact Checking The #GEJ #PDP Declaration Speech

  1. Clearly a biased article..last time I went to the school I graduated from, I praised the vc on the number of new structures, till I found out it was via gej programmes

    • Ofili

      Its a crowd funded article. State the name of your school and also provide pictures if possible. The ones I have seen from UNIBEN and UNILAG and UI were not impressive. But if you see something different let me know.

    • My dear Obum, new structures are not even the main problem. Maintenance of existing structures, refurbishment of laboratories, libraries, classrooms and offices as well as funding of research are the main issues. There’s no point in erection of new structures where the old ones have not been adequately maintained and there’s no plan for the maintenance of the recently erected one. I’m going to assume you attended a federal university like I did, and ask you these questions
      Did you go to the laboratories and see if “GEJ’s programmes” has replaced the equipments and apparatuses that were probably purchased when the university was established?
      How many new journals and textbooks have been purchased in your university library? I’m not even going to ask if your library has working computers sef, the answer might just not shock me.
      How much is allocated in your universities budget to fund specialized research programmes?
      Have your hostels been renovated? Do your undergraduates no longer live like animals in the overcrowded rooms?
      Adaeze latest post is The gamblerMy Profile

  2. Very well articulated Ofili….I’m very impressed with your exigecy on this propaganda called declaration speech….indeed lies have never worn a bolder face in Nigeria. The statistics rolled out in the President’s speech are ridden with intentional falacy, designed to deceive the teaming citizens of this nation while the treasury is unrepentantly plundered. Keep highlighting the truth because no matter how loud lies get, truth will eventually prevail!

  3. I don’t know if this counts, however GEJ built 10 Federal universities in 5 years, their quality can be questioned, but you should regrade him on the education scale. I graduated some years before GEJ smelt aso rock and believe me 5 months ASUU strike is an improvement on the strike scale (lol) compared to OBJ’s era when I graduated. The security aspect as you graded is on point, the situation is extremely dire, I haven’t traveled beyond Abuja in over 6 years because of security concerns. He definitely can do better than the shoddy job his team is doing presently.

  4. It took ASUU and ASUP to go on strike before the GEJ led govt coukd attend to them, I don’t even think ASUP has been attended to. On all the time I been to the MMI Airport, hand fan has been a good companion (mind you this is a refurbished facility to international standard). The SURE-P fund meant for developing the transport sector is yet to be achieved but instead, SURE-P Ferma foot soilders are been trained in some parts of Lagos, GEJ govt claiming this is part of her 1.2 M jobs promised Nigerians. Don’t let go there, is it power, security or what? This guy particularly promised to deal with corruption head long and he is floricking with the most corrupt persons and officials in the land. May God help us because one I thing we lack is that willpower to make our govt accountable, instead everyone is rather calling for the crumbs falling from the master’s table

  5. To me GEJ grade in all items listed above should be F. He failed woefully but the truth is, he will still win 2015 election based on this grade because he seems to be least corrupt and religious unbiased amongs those that have declared intention for the presidency. How i wish Governor Fashola can contend for that position….hum
    mudi latest post is Difference Is Nature, Lets Embrace It.My Profile

  6. Well, certainly GEJ’s administration has performed below expectation nd still have loads of work, but they have made efforts anyway…especially in education. I supervise some projects running in tertiary institutions at kogi nd Niger Delta Universities. The estimates for these projects are in billions of course, the standard however, is questionable. i should post some pictures soon.
    Maybe he deserves an upgrade on Education!!

  7. Well, certainly GEJ’s administration has performed below expectation nd still have loads of work, but they have made efforts anyway…especially in education. I supervise some projects running in tertiary institutions at kogi nd Niger Delta Universities. The estimates for these projects are in billions of course, the standard however, is questionable. i should post some pictures soon.
    Maybe he deserves a little more on Education!!

  8. What I find appaling is how Nigerians defend their rulers, they are meant to serve not to be served. The govt of the day is the worst I’ve seen in ages, they send more time fighting the opposition than governance. Their achievements are only read on newspapers with nothing to show for it. Jonathan’s adminsitration has failed woefully in everything including respecting rule of law. But its obvious that most of the populace are impressed with they way they are governed, like Fela said “suffering and smiling, so let’s sit back and get destroyed, its what we want.

  9. Your employment analysis is way off. 167 million Nigerians, yes. But some are too young, others too old and yet others pursuing full time studies. If you had data on Nigerians between 18 and 65 years who are not full time students, you would make better analysis. If Goodluck were to create 2 million jobs a year, he would solve the unemployment problem (A+). But he hasnt and would not do so. Your other analyses are right. Dont think it is a Goodluck problem though

    • Ofili

      If you say it is way off. Please provide a number. Don’t come here and try and gloss over the fact that I assumed 20% of 167 million are the unemployed, I know it is more but I still used a low 20%. And even with that 2 million jobs per year cannot do anything for Nigeria!

      • Nice article…but you got your unemployment rate analysis wrong. It’s not about the 20% assumption, It should be expressed as a percentage of the labour force and not the total population. Several reports put Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 24% by the way.

        • Ofili

          So this is a crowd sourced article so I will update based on errors I make …

          So the question is what is the population of the Nigerian labor force? Let’s use those aged between 15 to 35 years old… that is about 64 million per http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/12/54-nigerian-youths-unemployed-2012/ per that same article, 54% of that group is unemployed which is 34,560,000…at the end of the day we are back at square one.

          If we use 15-65 years old as the labor force then per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Nigeria about 50% of this age bracket make up our population. That is 83,000,000 Nigerians if we apply 24% as your suggested (which I think is still low) then we are at 20,000,000 unemployed. It will now take the government 5 years to solve the current unemployment problem, but by then 10 million people will be added to the labor force.

  10. 1.9 million jobs? where na? Utopia? Frankly i haven’t bothered to read his declaration speech, if i want to read fiction I’d rather lie down and reread a Jeffrey Archer title.
    Trust you to give a clear and indepth analysis, looking forward to the next part.
    Adaeze latest post is Meant to beMy Profile

  11. I’m saying, the 167 million includes 3yr-olds and 87 yr-olds. I may be wrong, but isn’t unemployment about people who are available for employment not having a job?

  12. Miss Chibuzo on said:

    Well maybe political appointments and 2015 political aspiration has tied and sealed the hands and mouths of some in that field to critique…

    As for GEJ I really do not know what to say to him. At the initial stage he seemed to have started off well and in a twinkle of an eye….it was like the wind of confusion blew to his territory and blurred his vision! I feel he has failed more than he may claim to have accomplished! I am sure he didn’t even understand the facts he stated in the speech….It just another manuscript! After all, it is his constitutional right to return for a 2nd Term.

    To me the figures or percentage of the employed and unemployed are not even relevant now. Most of the people that pride themselves to be employed today are either under private owned organizations or self-employed with their skills o! (Maybe there is a way the government participated in creating those jobs……I am not an expert in that area). The Government owned organizations we have today creating the so-called government jobs are striving small because they have some input of privatization! The question is where and what are these jobs that are being claimed to be created! Let us even see. Don’t come in year-in-year-out and tell us you created jobs for the gods!

    It is only a pity that it is still same people who have failed us that we are being forced to decide who is to return? I mean check out the aspirants! How do we decide in 2015? Vote for the one who has least failed so that he can return and fail completely?
    Looking forward to “Z-”
    God bless Nigeria!

  13. Hey adaeze I graduated from uniben..it’s so easy to criticize, I wish ofili writes another article on his own personal suggestion to solve all the issues listed above, I will surely appreciate it

    • Nice! Like you I graduated from Uniben. Like you, I saw the new structures but wasn’t impressed. Students in my faculty (Pharmacy) still use the same apparatus I used, the same ones that were purchased in the 1970s when the faculty was established. Where 12 – 24 girls share a room in hall 2. Where the e-learning centres are not functional, where the most of the books in Main library and the faculty libraries are years out of date, where my lecturers have to fund their research themselves.
      It seems unfair that I’m not impressed by the new structures that dot the landscape of “great” Uniben, it’s just that we have too many unmaintained structures.
      Adaeze latest post is You- Chapter fiveMy Profile

  14. Alabi Abiola on said:

    Oga Ofils still going thru the whole post but I noticed you didn’t in number of people retiring every year in your statistics.

  15. To people saying he is off with his calculations, I don’t believe this is a matter of statistics but rather the evidence of these so called jobs. Like someone pointed out, where are these jobs? Why hasn’t unemployment reduced? If we are to go by statistics also remember to put into cognisance the number of people that should be considered unable due to their paltry earnings. But then you’ll say, ‘half a bread is better than none’. Most people employed are either in private organisations or skillfully employed. Quite a good number of people are not gainfully employed, just employed and that doesn’t solve the pertinent needs that will arise. Also put into consideration the number of people that decided to go back to school full time when they didn’t get jobs. This is a way of coping, pushing the problems away as if they are not there. Every year in schools, entrepreneurial lectures are held where students are told to be job creators (entrepreneurs) and not just employees. Skill acquisition trainings everywhere and they are told that there are no jobs in the outside world. The unemployed uncle in your area is either still unemployed or working in a small private organisation or trying to make ends meet with petty trading and such. If he is lucky, he gets a connection – either miraculously or not – and is working in a big private organisation or for the government. If unemployment is being solved we will know even before they broadcast any statistics through the media.

  16. Pingback: How To Criticize #Buhari Without Pissing People Off | Ofilispeaks

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